NHC Tags Area of Low Pressure With Low Development Chance (10%)

April 24, 2024 by Hurricane Tracker Team

4/24/24 - 4PM EDT Update: We mentioned this system in a post this morning (see below). Now, the NHC has tagged it as our first system of the year with a chance of development at 10%. Highly unusual for April. Additional development is not expected as it will move into an area with high wind shear over the next 24-48 hours. Click on the “Outlook” tab below to see outlooks issued by the NHC.

4/24/24 - 1:15 PM EDT: We are sending out this post because we have our first swirl of the “season”, even though it’s only April. We have an interesting area of low pressure with a closed circulation, persistent convection and winds likely 30 mph+ in the open east Atlantic. The NHC has not designated this system and is unlikely to do so since were are only in April. It’s possible they could designate it in their post-season analysis as they have done before with a few systems that got going before June 1st. However, this is a definite reminder that conditions out there are already more favorable than they should be for this time of year and that the season is not far away. It’s April 24th and the season is trying really hard to get going. Hurricane season officially starts in 38 days on June 1st. The eastern Pacific season starts in 3 weeks on May 15th.

The season will officially kick off on June 1st for the Atlantic and May 15th for the Eastern Pacific. If you are not already a premium graphics subscriber, sign up today and get higher resolution storm graphics that contain more information so you can make informed decisions. Premium users will have access to wind graphics that the NHC does not publish. Details here > Premium Graphics Info.

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EL Nino Is Quickly Collapsing

April 19, 2024 by Hurricane Tracker Team

We have already posted forecasts from AccuWeather and Colorado State University which both predicted an extremely active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season with over 20 tropical cyclones. The two main factors causing forecasters to issue high numbers is because the Atlantic Ocean is already seeing water temperatures at July levels and a La Nina is forecasted over the eastern Pacific which leads to reduced wind shear in the Atlantic, allowing more storms to form. We already have the data to prove the Atlantic is very warm, but what is the status on La Niña? We will also discuss if we typically see more hurricanes in the Gulf during La Niña years.

Back in February, El Niño was in full force across the central and eastern Pacific near the equator with water temps running 2°C+ above average.

Two months later (April 2024), sea surface temperatures have dramatically reversed and temps are near normal to slightly below average in the same region. This will have important ramifications on the upcoming hurricane season.

NOAA is forecasting over a 70% chance of La Niña by July/August/Sept (the heart of the hurricane season). No reason this will not verify given how quickly we are seeing the reversal of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. (NOAA Graphic).

During a La Niña, the Atlantic basin typically seas more frequent tropical cyclones and overall, they are stronger due to less wind shear. We may see less activity for the eastern Pacific basin this season. (AccuWeather graphic)

It’s easy to see in the image above (top right image above) that there are way fewer Gulf of Mexico hurricanes during and El Niño as compared to La Niña seasons (bottom left image above).

At this point in time, there’s no reason to go against the forecasts that have already been released predicting a very active season. In about a month, NOAA will release their 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast and we will see if it’s in line with the others issued before it. While we do not know exactly where storms will form and track this season, we have enough data to at least warrant a note to our users that preparation is the best defense against an active hurricane season. It’s never to early to begin preparing for what this season may bring. We will be here with you every step of the way and if the current state of the upcoming season changes, we will let you know. Thanks for following along and consider becoming a premium user (if no already) to help support this app and what we do. Thanks and have a great weekend!

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How To Use The Hurricane Tracker Storm Push Alert System

April 13, 2024 by Hurricane Tracker Team

One of the most useful and popular features of the Hurricane Tracker App is for storm push alerts to be sent directly to your device. In this post, we will describe how to make sure you are properly signed up and when you will get storm alerts.

(iPhone and iPad App) - In the upper right-hand corner of the Hurricane Tracker App, tap on the settings gear icon and you will then see the screen below. Tap on “regions” to view the options.

We give you the option to select up to 3 region options that most apply to you. For example, if you live in Texas and have a second property in Florida, you might want to select “Gulf Coast” and “Florida/Bahamas”. Storm alerts are sent only sent to regions where there is a possibility of being affected in some way by a tropical cyclone within 7 days. Note: if you ever receive the same alert more than once, it means a storm may be affecting more than one region you are subscribed to. There’s no way of merging the same alert for multiple regions into one alert. See below for when we send storm alerts.

When will you notify me of a potential or active storm:

*When an area of interest (Invest) has a medium or high chance of development and may affect land during its lifetime. Note: If a tropical wave has a medium or high chance of development and will recurve (not affect land}, no alert will be sent in that situation. We will not bother our users unnecessarily when there is no threat to land.

*A tropical depression or tropical storm forms and has a reasonable chance of affecting land. Alerts will be sent only to regions that could be affected. Alerts will be sent only to regions that could be affected within 15 minutes of designation by the NHC.

*A tropical depression is upgraded to a tropical storm and has a reasonable chance of affecting land. Alerts will be sent only to regions that could be affected within 15 minutes of the upgrade.

*A tropical storm is upgraded to a category 1 hurricane and has a reasonable chance of affecting land. Alerts will be sent only to regions that could be affected within 15 minutes of the upgrade.

*A hurricane is upgraded to a major category 3 storm and has a reasonable chance of affecting land. Alerts will be sent only to regions that could be affected within 15 minutes of the upgrade.

*Alerts will be sent when tropical storm, hurricane, or storm surge warnings are issued within a specified region within 15 minutes of the warning being issued. We do not send push alerts for watches that may be issued, but you can find those in the public advisory within a storm page.

*From time to time, we may send app tips such as this one, seasonal outlooks, or other important information related to tracking hurricanes.

You may turn off alerts from our app at any time by opening the settings app on your phone, tapping on notifications, and then look for “Hurr Tracker”. See above. You can disable alerts within that menu.

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