2/9/26 - 2026 Atlantic Pre-Season Outlook #1

We are just a little under 4 months away from the beginning of another hurricane season and as of the latest data we have, it’s looking like it could be a near average season. A La Niña pattern has dominated across the tropical pacific which has led to a dreadful winter weather pattern that has been dominate across the midwest U.S. and the eastern U.S. However, the cooler waters across the tropical Pacific are warming and all indications point to a moderate El Niño setting in just in time for hurricane season. We will likely see neutral ENSO conditions late February through April (No El Niño or La Niña) followed by a strengthening El Niño near the end of Spring 2026.

A post from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center shows NOAA’s ENSO outlook issued in January, including a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral by late winter/early spring and rising El Niño odds later in the year. (Photo courtesy NWS Climate Prediction Center)

El Niño conditions tend to increase wind shear across the Caribbean and the Main Development Region of the Atlantic limiting the intensity and number of tropical systems.

A large portion of the tropical Atlantic Sea Surface temps are running above average.

Last month, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued the first outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, with 3 major and 7 total hurricanes expected. The seasonal prediction, which also indicates the possibility of 14 tropical storms, could closely mirror activity seen during the 1991-2020 climatology period spanning the period from June 1st to November 30th, 2026, the forecast employs data through to the end of November 2025. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average, which is likely to keep the basin at least near average numbers. TSR warns that the forecast is still somewhat uncertain, given the possibility of El Niño conditions developing and persisting through summer and autumn 2026. Stay tuned for more updates as we get closer to June 1st.

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The season will officially get kicked off on June 1st for the Atlantic and May 15th for the Eastern Pacific. Thank you for being a Hurricane Tracker App user and supporting our passion for tracking tropical cyclones!

2/7/26 - Get Ready For the 2026 Season With Hurricane Tracker Premium!

Early indications are that the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season may produce near normal activity. A moderate El Niño may be in place by mid-summer, along with a reasonably certainty of above average sea surface temperatures. We will have further updates this spring.

It’s now 2026 and the next hurricane season will be here before we know it. As many of you know, our app on the App Store has been free to download for the last couple of seasons and we keep it running through the support from our premium users. We are offering a limited time sale on premium so more users can become a member and benefit from upgraded graphics and pledge their support for Hurricane Tracker App. We can’t do it without you! This offer applies to new members only and will run for a limited time so sign up today! Thanks for your ongoing support as we continue to strive to be the best and most comprehensive Hurricane Tracking App out there! Hope everyone has a great 2026! 25% off Sale ends Monday 2/9/26!

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10/21/25 - Tropical Storm Melissa Forms In The Caribbean

Tropical Storm Melissa has formed in the central Caribbean. It’s forecasted by the NHC to become the next hurricane. The track forecast is uncertain at this time. Melissa will eventually be pulled to the north/northeast, but the question at this time is how far west will it track before the turn occurs? Impacts are likely for portions of the central Caribbean and the Bahamas within the next week. While impacts to Florida can’t be completely ruled out, that threat appears low at this time. Premium graphics will be available to subscribers once our servers ingest the NHC data and process the images. Always click on “current storms'“ down below for the latest on Melissa. Stay tuned for updates as needed.

The latest European ensembles as of 0Z 10/21/25

IMPORTANT NOTE FOR OUR USERS:

We have had a lot of premium cancellations this season due to the lack of inactivity in the tropics this season. We certainly understand the reasoning and will never tell a user they can’t cancel. However, our app and server costs are supported heavily by our premium user base. We make this app free on the App Store. If you have not signed up for premium, and love this app, and would like to see it keep going into the future - please consider signing up here. You can also donate any amount here. Thanks for your support in helping keep Hurricane Tracker alive and well!

GO HI-RES! If you are not already a premium graphics subscriber, sign up today and take full advantage of what Hurricane Tracker has to offer. Details here > Premium Graphics Info. Thank you for being a Hurricane Tracker App user and supporting our passion for tracking tropical cyclones! We couldn’t do this without your support! 2025 will be our 15th year of tracking tropical systems!

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Thanks for your ongoing support and helping to keep this app active!