Zeta Takes Aim at Southeastern Louisiana; Landfall Expected Tomorrow Evening

After weakening a bit due to interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, Zeta is back out over the Gulf of Mexico and is beginning to restrengthen.

Satellite imagery just before sunset showed numerous intense convective towers wrapping almost entirely around the storm’s center. This is important because if the ring of thunderstorms can manage to close off, we could see a burst of fairly quick intensification tonight into tomorrow morning. If it remains open, intensification will be considerably more modest. In either case, Zeta is expected to become a hurricane again sometime tonight or tomorrow morning.

Zeta is expected to curve north and eventually northwest tonight/tomorrow before making landfall in southeastern Louisiana while moving rapidly northeast tomorrow evening. The worst of the storm will be along and just east (within 25-35 miles) of the center’s path. In this area, winds in excess of 75 mph are expected along with significant storm surge along the shorelines (>5 feet possible in some spots) Because Zeta will be moving so quickly, the storm’s strong winds will persist well inland into parts of southern Mississippi and western/central Alabama as well as NW Georgia. Folks in these regions should be prepared for power outages even though they are relatively far from the region where the storm’s maximum winds will come ashore.

The bright side to Zeta’s fast forward motion is a decrease in the heavy rain threat. While flash flooding will occur as 3-6” of rain falls in a relatively short time, widespread major flooding is not expected. Heavy rain will also continue well inland as Zeta weakens on Thursday and places as far northeast as Virginia and Maryland could see flooding problems as Zeta’s moisture moves north.

-Jack

Issued: TUE 10/27/2020

Hurricane Zeta Poses Yet Another Threat to the Gulf Coast

After a year of relentless tropical cyclone threats along the northern Gulf Coast, we have yet another cyclone taking aim at the region this week. Zeta, named over the weekend in the Caribbean, will follow a track somewhat similar to that which Delta took earlier in October. Also similar to Delta, the storm has rapidly intensified into a hurricane before making landfall in the Yucatan.

Satellite imagery shows intense thunderstorm activity near the storm’s center, which marks an improvement in organization from earlier today when the low-level center was completely removed from the storm’s convective activity.

After making landfall in the Yucatan tonight, Zeta will move into the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. Caught between a large ridge over Florida and a winter storm over Texas, the storm will turn north and eventually northeast with landfall expected in Louisiana on Wednesday evening. The storm’s exact intensity at landfall is a little bit uncertain but residents in southeastern LA need to be prepared for the possibility of hurricane conditions as Delta comes ashore. That said, there’s some chance that increasing wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures might conspire to spare the coastline from the worst winds. Even if that ends up being the case, storm surge will still pose a significant threat especially to areas near and east of the point of landfall.

-Jack

Issued: 10/26/2020