9/15/17 - Tropics Are Busy Once Again. All Eyes on Jose For Now

Note: At times, our team will write in-depth discussions on the tropics or systems below. Always visit the "Current Storms" section for the latest advisories and tracking maps on active systems.

The tropics are heating up again now that we have Tropical Storm Jose, Tropical Depression Fourteen, and Invest 96L. I want to focus on Jose because this storm poses the greatest risk to land in the short-term.

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone continues to shift westward, closer to the U.S. East Coast. The latest guidance as a whole suggests that Jose will at least make a close pass along the east coast, but some models are showing a possible landfall somewhere north of the Outer Banks.

 As Jose gains latitude, it will move over cooler waters. This is when Jose may transition from a tropical cyclone to an extratropical storm. In this process, the wind field often expands. Therefore, the coast may very well experience tropical-storm-force winds even if Jose doe not make landfall.

The majority of the models still take Jose out to sea after getting very close to New England, but some of them do have Jose making landfall somewhere on the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast. There is still plenty of uncertainty, but if you live between the Outer Banks through SE Canada, I would prepare now in case the track shifts more west. Stock up on some extra water, food, and fuel--It’s always good to be prepared just in case. Despite the uncertainty in the track, I am certain that there will be large waves of up to 10 feet along much of the U.S. East Coast and a high rip current risk. We have issued low 5 Day Alert Levels for this region. See below.

We havde issued "Low" 5 Day Alert Levels from NC to SE Canada as high pressure over the western Atlantic has been trending stronger and may cause Jose to get closer to the coast than forecasted.

We’ll have another update as conditions warrant on Tropical Storm Jose.

-- Jackson Dill, Hurricane Tracker Team 

9/13/17 - Hurricane Jose Should Miss The U.S., but Bermuda Should Monitor

Note: At times, our team will write in-depth discussions on the tropics or systems below. Always visit the "Current Storms" section for the latest advisories and tracking maps on active systems.

The tropics in the Atlantic have thankfully quieted down a bit now that Hurricane Irma is just a remnant low over the Eastern U.S. We are still watching Hurricane Jose north of the Caribbean Islands, just meandering around due to a weak steering flow. There is some wind shear and dry air that is affecting the storm and will continue to do so the next couple days, so it may weaken into a strong tropical storm briefly, but around the end of this week it should become a hurricane again. Now when we talk about potential U.S. impacts from Jose, the chances are very low at this moment. Almost all models take the storm out to sea, although there are a few that do bring Jose into the Mid-Atlantic or New England. That’s why we’re still going to be needing to watch this storm closely just in case he follows one of those paths close to land. If Jose doesn’t make landfall on the U.S., which it shouldn’t at this time, it will still bring larger waves to the Eastern Seaboard. If you’re in Bermuda, that’s a different story because there is the potential Jose gets very close to Bermuda as a category 1 hurricane. Just monitor the forecast and we’ll be sure to keep you updated on the Hurricane Tracker App.

We’ll another update as conditions warrant on Hurricane Jose.

-- Jackson Dill, Hurricane Tracker Team