Satellite imagery reveals that Invest 97L has continued to become better organized during the past 24 hours. The NHC states there is a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days. The Hurricane Hunters were en-route this afternoon and had to turn around due to maintenance issues. The NHC has been unable to confirm if there is an organized surface low pressure area. All the twisting seen on satellite, appears to be in the mid-levels. Regardless of short term classification, the strong wave will bring heavy rain and 40-50 mph winds to Jamaica overnight. Despite the lack of classification, the impacts for Jamaica will remain the same.

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97L may look like a tropical storm, but the NHC is waiting to confirm a closed surface low.

Track: Confidence is high that Invest 97L will move towards the west over the next few days generally towards Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula. 97L is being steered to the west by a deep layer ridge of high pressure located over the southern United States. This high pressure has also been responsible for the recent southern heat. We are in Atlanta, and it sure has been a hot summer thanks to the persistent heat ridge. 97L is forecasted by the models to make landfall near Belize sometime on Wednesday, possibly as a hurricane. We want to note, this storm is no threat to the United States coastline.

Our team has issued high Alert Levels for portions of the Western Caribbean.

Intensity: 97L is working with a favorable environment and water temps in the mid-upper 80's that extend well below the surface - plenty of fuel for the system to feed from. Most models forecast modest strengthening over the next couple of days. At this time, we give this system a 30% chance of becoming a hurricane - it's not out of the question. All interests in the Western Caribbean should follow the progress of 97L closely.

Model guidance has been very consistent with a w-wnw track. Earl could reach the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in 4-5 days.

August outlook: As we move deeper into August and beyond, we expect activity to continue to increase as conditions basin wide continue to improve above some very warm waters. The Atlantic has many positive factors going for it this season as compared to the last few. While we can never detect a specific threat more than a few days out, we do see some signs in the models/patterns that we could see at least one U.S. landfall threat in the weeks to come. Stay aware, alert & tuned to the Hurricane Tracker App for updates.

Please stay tuned here at the Hurricane Tracker App for frequent updates on 97L/Earl throughout the rest of this week.

We highly recommend following our Twitter (hurrtrackerapp) for real time coverage as the system tracks towards Central America.

A new post will be issue sometime on Tuesday afternoon, usually before 6PM EDT, or earlier if conditions warrant.

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Note: 8/1/16 4PM EDT - We will have a new update on Invest 97L posted here by 7PM EDT.

We hope everyone is having a great weekend. For the last couple of days, we have been following Invest 96L in the far eastern Atlantic & Invest 97L which is on approach to the Lesser Antilles tonight. Development chances for 96L have decreased as the environment is becoming less favorable, while chances of 97L developing have been steadily increasing. In fact, the NHC says 97L has a 70% chance of developing, while our opinion is just a bit higher at 80%. In this post, we will focus on Invest 97L and the potential it brings down the road.

Invest 97L has been rapidly moving westward which has limited its ability to organize. Despite the fast forward motion, it has been able to organize somewhat today and looks more defined than 24 hours ago. This system will bring squally weather to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday. It's important to note, there is only a 30-40% chance it develops before reaching the eastern Caribbean.

The big question is if this system develops, where will it track and which regions could be impacted? The track over the next 3-4 days seems pretty straightforward. 97L will track westward through the Caribbean just south of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Haiti in response to a strong ridge of high pressure to its north. If development occurs, it will likely be in the W Caribbean or Southern Gulf of Mexico towards the middle of next week. Beyond the middle of next week, most of the major computer model guidance tracks the system into the Eastern Mexican Gulf coast next weekend as Tropical Storm Earl. Keep in mind a week in the tropics seems like an eternity and these forecasts can and will change! See the current models below:

The final track of this system will be dependent upon the strength/orientation of a forecasted high pressure ridge over the SE. If this ridge is weaker than forecasted or 97L intensifies more than expected, than we could see a track further north up the coast into TX. Guidance has varied on how strong the ridge will be and if a slight weakness will form in the western Gulf to help lift the storm more poleward. We will need to see how quickly the system organizes, how strong it gets and what future model runs do with the high pressure ridge to get a handle on where it may end up. Please keep in mind, there is still a 30% chance it won't develop. Lots of uncertainty with the long range forecast, as usual. Based on the latest data, we see only a 6% chance of Texas being affected as of right now. Mexico has a higher odds at the moment based on the latest guidance. See our current Long Range Guidance product that was issued by our team this evening. This will be updated as needed in response to new data.

Hurricane Tracker App Long Range Impact Chance Map. Subject to large errors and will change.

On a final note, the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are the warmest they have been in years and there's a lot of oceanic heat potential available to this organizing system. If we see development, these warm waters may promote strengthening.

We will be back with another post as conditions warrant. Be sure to sign up for our email updates to have our posts delivered via email when issued. Thanks for using the Hurricane Tracker App ad have a great Sunday - keep your eye on the tropics if you are in the potential path of this system.

8/1/16 - Invest 97L Is Close To Tropical Storm Status

7/30/16 - Invest 97L May Become a Threat Next Week