Hurricane Erin has weakened somewhat since becoming a powerful category 5 hurricane. As of this writing, winds are near 125 mph which makes Erin a category 3 major hurricane. The NHC does forecast Erin to become a category 4 storm as it turns NNE just east of the Bahamas tomorrow. Erin is then forecasted to turn to the north mid-week and weaken to a category 2 as it tracks between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda.

Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Interests along the North Carolina Outer Banks and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rain bands during the middle part of the week. Thank goodness this powerful storm will not make landfall.

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Tropical Storm Watches issued for the NE Caribbean. 1”-4" inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6" will be possible in the region. Puerto Rico is not under a tropical watch at this time. But a few inches of rain can be expected based on the current track for Erin.

Erin has become better organized and winds have intensified to 60 mph. Erin is forecasted to become a hurricane on Friday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Erin will be in a conducive environment during the next 48 hours with light to moderate wind shear. This will allow a faster rate of intensification. Beyond 48 hours, some NW wind shear may begin to impact Erin and temporarily slow down the rate of intensification. Erin will become the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season It should reach cat 3 or 4 status.

Erin is being steered west by a subtropical ridge to the north and this will continue the next few days. Beyond 72 hours, the western edge of the ridge is expected to weaken which will allow Erin to turn more NW. There is significant spread in the guidance on just how sharp this turn will be. Due to the spread in the track guidance by 120 hrs and beyond, there’s still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range. Stay tuned.

Locally heavy rain, high surf, rip currents and tropical storm force winds could occur in portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of Erin passes north of the Caribbean. Interests in these areas should monitor Erin.

Interests in the Bahamas, SE U.S. and Bermuda should also continue to monitor Erin as the final track has not yet been figured out due to the amount of uncertainty with the upcoming steering pattern.

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8/17/25 - Hurricane Erin Update

8/14/25 - TS Erin Discussion and Analysis