9/4/25 - Invest 91L Discussion

Hot off the press. The 12Z Euro Ensembles continue the Caribbean threat next week with 91L. Also, many more members are much stronger than previous runs. Not a forecast, just monitoring model trends. The next name on the list is Gabrielle

Here’s the first set of spaghetti model runs for 91L. For now, they are pointed towards the eastern Caribbean. Any impacts would be mid to late next week. Nothing set in stone yet. Stay tuned for updates.

GFS has fully corrected to the EURO. Here is the brand new 12Z run today. #91L #tropics Data shows a strong TS Gabrielle or a Category 1 hurricane into the central or northern Lesser Antilles mid to late next week. Not a forecast, but the GFS has trended south. Our impacts chances are posted for premium members in app under premium.

Here’s the latest European Ensembles and their westerly trend pointing right at the Lesser Antilles mid next week. Still lots of time for a new trend to emerge. Image valid 9/10/25 06Z. Lets keep watching…

Important development. A portion of the Lesser Antilles are now included in the NHC “hatched region” for Invest 91L. Development odds are at 90% and model trends are showing an increasing threat in about a week. Will continue to monitor trends.

9/2/25 - High Chance of Development This Week

Gradual development of a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is likely this week. The NHC states there’s a high chance of development. Not sure yet if this will impact any land areas, so it will need to be watched. No invest designation yet. Not a concern at the moment for anyone. We will post updates as needed.

0Z European Ensembles 10 days out. 9/2/25 run.