We have highlighted areas in yellow throughout portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, Bahamas and SE U.S. that just need to “Be Aware” and keep an eye on “Erin” as the storm draws closer. If any of these areas need to “prepare” we will update the graphics. Final track not yet known.

11PM NHC track showing the NNW turn (blue line) in 5 days for Erin. Some model data trying to bring Erin a little more west. Will see what data tomorrow brings. We will have a major hurricane in the western Atlantic this weekend. Best scenario is for Erin to shoot the gap between U.S. and Bermuda and not directly affect anyone. Final track not set yet. Stay tuned.

Tropical Storm Erin has been maintaining its intensity near 45 mph, but is forecasted to become a hurricane on Friday and a major hurricane this weekend. The latest track guidance takes it a bit farther away from the northern Caribbean, but there still may be some impacts and possible feeder bands affecting the region around Puerto Rico. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should still monitor the progress of Erin in case of any unexpected forecast changes.

Computer models the last 12 hours are showing a little more agreement that Erin will slide just north of the Caribbean and east of the Bahamas. Bermuda will have to watch Erin very closely as the chance of impacts on the island are somewhat increasing. The center may pass just west of Bermuda next week. Erin will be a strong category 3 or 4 hurricane at that time as indicated by the guidance.

At this time there is very little chance of impacts on the U.S. mainland, but we will still monitor for any forecast changes. Stay tuned to the Hurricane Tracker App. Always click on current storms > Erin for all the latest graphics and forecasts on Erin.

GO HI-RES! If you are not already a premium graphics subscriber, sign up today and take full advantage of what Hurricane Tracker has to offer. Details here > Premium Graphics Info. Thank you for being a Hurricane Tracker App user and supporting our passion for tracking tropical cyclones! We couldn’t do this without your support! 2025 will be our 15th year of tracking tropical systems!

Example image below of just one of our premium graphics offerings during an active storm.

Details here > Premium Graphics Info.

Thanks for your ongoing support and helping to keep this app active!

The 12Z Euro ensembles today still show the potential of some portion of the NE Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda or SE U.S. being impacted by Erin long range. This is not a forecast, just what this model run shows today. Still lots of uncertainty.

Portions of the northern Caribbean are now within the NHC 5 day cone as of the 8/12/25 11AM EDT advisory. This includes some of Puerto Rico and the British Islands.

The NHC discussion from 8/12 11AM EDT regarding the south and west shift.

The previous 4 NHC track forecasts for Erin have been trending a bit further south and west.

Due to recent trends in the model data, we are now including portions of the Caribbean into our 5 day alert level product. Low to guarded risk at this time. This includes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Doesn't mean impact is coming, but its time to watch Erin more closely in these areas.

Great product here from @burgwx. It combines the ensembles for EURO, GFS and CMC into one density chart. This will change, but at this time we have some very LOW land risks showing up. Will see how this changes as Erin keeps tracking west. Note, Bermuda also has a low risk at this time. The U.S. mainland is not included in the low risk area at this time. We review this every 12 hours for new trends

Erin is wrapped up in some Saharan dust today and has very limited convection. Lots of dusty, dry skies around the system. We believe models may be over doing Erin's intensity throughout the next several days and Erin may stay on the weaker side of the intensity guidance. This could mean a more westerly track closer to the Caribbean. Lots to watch obviously. Nothing set in stone with this storm by any means.

Example image below of just one of our premium graphics offerings during an active storm.

Details here > Premium Graphics Info.

Thanks for your ongoing support and helping to keep this app active!

8/13/25 - TS Erin Discussion and Analysis

8/12/25 - TS Erin Discussion