FRI 8/2/24 - Discussion On Potential Tropical Cyclone 4
Summary: Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 is a strong tropical wave that is expected to become Tropical Storm Debby this weekend in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The circulation is not yet well defined, but convection and vorticity have been increasing today. The system is located over central Cuba and will continue moving towards the west-northwest towards the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. As of this writing, max sustained winds are near 30 mph.
Watches & Warnings: Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of the western Florida coast and the Florida Straits. There's also a storm surge watch in effect for a portion of the West Coast of Florida. Please see a summary of the watches and warnings listed below. We do expect more watches and warnings to be issued in expanded as the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
Track: The wave is moving towards the west-northwest and a turn towards the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the sub tropical ridge caused by a mid latitude trough over the Ohio valley. Eventually, it will turn towards the north Northeast and track near the SE United States coastline next week. Most of the modeling is in agreement with the scenario, however, there are a couple of models that are west of the hurricane center track. At this time, the storm is expected to track almost parallel to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the SE United States coastline, and small changes in the track could cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas receive the strongest impacts. There is medium confidence in the track forecast at this time.
Intensity: Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba and it is likely to become a tropical depression after moves offshore into the SE Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light wind shear and very warm ocean temperatures, so steady strengthening is anticipated. There’s some uncertainty as to how long it will take to consolidate and how long it will remain offshore of the western Florida coast. The cyclone is expected to weaken once it crosses Florida and re-intensify once it enters the Atlantic Ocean. As of this discussion, the NHC is forecasting peak winds near 70 mph before crosses Florida. Some guidance is showing the potential of a category one hurricane so this will need to be watched closely. if the storm strengthens quicker than expected or tracks longer over water then hurricane watches may be issued. There's medium confidence in the intensity forecast at this time.
Rain Threat: PTC 4 is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4” to 8” inches with maximum amounts up to 12” inches, across portions of Florida and along the SE US coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding with isolated river flooding possible.
Wind Threat: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday. Areas under TS warnings could see winds up to 65 mph which could cause some minor damage and power outages.
Storm Surge Threat: Storm surge will range anywhere from 1’ to 4’ feet along portions of the western Florida Peninsula. The combination of storm surge and high tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters, moving inland from the shoreline.
Tornado Threat: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys in the Western Florida Peninsula, Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Recap: While at this time, this system is not expected to be a strong storm by any means, it is going to cause some impacts along and near its track. Heavy rainfall and storm surge will likely be the biggest threat from the system. If you are along the predicted path, please take the appropriate action to keep your family and property safe. Also, check on your loved ones and your pets. We are not expecting any huge surprises with the storm, but once it gets over the warm gulf waters, it could strengthen more than forecasted so we would prepare for a category one hurricane, in case it does strengthen more quickly.
We will have a new discussion with the latest on Saturday. Always click on the storm name under current storms for all the latest advisories and graphics.
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