TS Beta Expected To Bring Heavy Rain To Texas

TD 22 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta yesterday after Hurricane Hunters found winds sustained above 40 mph. An impressive burst of thunderstorm activity yesterday evening brought the system’s winds up to 60 mph which is the current advisory intensity as of NHC’s 10 AM CDT update on 9/19.

Beta will drift west over the coming days as high pressure builds in over the Plains. During this time, it will continue to experience the dry air and wind shear that’s currently pushing most of its convective activity northeast of the center. However, the shear will relax a bit tomorrow night and Monday morning as the storm is approaching the coastline. This may allow for a brief period of intensification, possibly into a hurricane. This is what the current NHC forecast calls for as of their 10 AM 9/19 advisory.

Much more important than the storm’s intensity upon landfall will be its slow movement and the associated heavy rain threat. Thankfully, due to the southwesterly shear discussed above, Beta’s heaviest rain will likely fall just offshore. That said, portions of the TX and LA coast could see rainfall totals of 6-12” or more as Beta wanders throughout the region this week. We’ll have to keep a close eye on forthcoming adjustments to the storm’s track to pin down exactly where the heaviest rain might fall, and how much of it there might be.

Several days of onshore winds ahead of Beta will lead to some storm surge along the Gulf Coast from Brownsville TX all the way to Mississippi.

Current forecasts show surge values of 2-4 feet for most of this area. That’s enough to cause some disruptions but shouldn’t be enough for widespread/major issues. Keep in mind that may change for some areas if Beta strengthens a bit more before landfall.

-Jack

TD 22 Forms in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, May Threaten Texas With Heavy Rain Next Week

While Major Hurricane Teddy spins through the open Atlantic, the disturbance tagged 90L in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was named Tropical Depression Twenty-Two today after hurricane hunters found a closed center of circulation near the system’s cluster of thunderstorm activity.

TD 22 is located in a region of weak steering currents so it won’t be moving anywhere quickly. Model guidance shows the system drifting a little northeast in the next couple days before perhaps wandering back to the west early next week. As we saw with Sally, these slow-moving systems wandering in regions without strong steering currents are really hard from a track forecast perspective. So we don’t know how close the storm might get to the Texas coastline.

If it tracks a bit farther west, heavy rain, gusty winds, and some storm surge would be possible in parts of southern Texas. If the system wobbles a bit farther east, impacts could be relatively minimal. As far as intensity goes, the official NHC forecast currently calls for the system to gradually intensify into a strong tropical storm over the next couple days. The environment should be generally favorable for at least modest intensification before a surge of dry air arrives Monday.

The system’s longer-term future is quite uncertain, but there are some signs that a turn back to the northeast may occur later next week. If that were to be the case, Louisiana may also need to watch out for possible impacts.

Much more on this system in the days to come, especially if it becomes a more serious threat.

-Jack

Posted on 9/17/2020 by Jack Sillin with the Hurricane Tracker App. These posts are meant to provide our users with a detailed analysis of the tropics as conditions warrant and may not be updated on a daily basis. For the latest up to date storm information, always go to “Current Storms” and select a system for the latest information.

We will have another tropical weather discussion as conditions warrant. Thanks for using Hurricane Tracker.