8/30/16 - TD 8 & TD 9 Are Struggling To Achieve TS Status. New Invest 92L May Develop.

WED 8/31/16 - A new discussion on TD 9 will be posted here by 9AM EDT.

We are tracking a couple of tropical depressions in the Atlantic, TD 8 near the Outer Banks of NC and TD 9 in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Both systems have been unable to further organize over the last 24-36 hours as the environment near each has not been favorable to support strengthening.

TD 8 is located about 95 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras and it moving towards the NW. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of NC from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet as tropical storm conditions are expected to impact the warning area later this afternoon. However, this will be a low impact, short-lived event. There is still a chance that the depression may not achieve tropical storm status before it's close approach to NC (not expected to make landfall). Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected over far eastern NC, including the Outer Banks. Overall, this is a weak system and impacts will be very minor.

Our other depression, TD 9 is centered about 300 miles W of Key West Florida and is moving very slowly towards the W at 7 mph. There are no watches or warnings in effect for FL, but we do expect tropical storm or hurricane watches to be posted for portions of the FL Gulf coast later this morning.

TD 9's low level center became exposed overnight due to some westerly wind shear. All indications is that the wind shear should decrease over the next 2 days allowing TD 9  to intensify into a tropical storm. However, even as wind shear decreases, conditions are not ideal to allow much strengthening as there will be some dry air to the west of the system. Only gradual strengthening is forecasted by the NHC. Winds are expected to peak near 65 mph before it makes landfall Thursday near the Big Bend of FL. At this time, the chances of TD9 becoming a tropical storm are at about 80% and less than a 10% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. 

Regarding the NHC track below, anyone in the cone should monitor the progress of this system closely as it could affect the Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville areas on Thursday. Most of the rainfall and tropical storm force winds should be located on the eastern side of the storm upon landfall. As of this post, there's a 30-40% chance of tropical storm force wind impacting portions of north FL. Rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches can be expected through Friday morning over much of the FL peninsula, which may lead to flash flooding in some areas. Again, ,most of this will fall to the east of where the center makes landfall. Interests in central and northern FL, and SE GA should monitor the progress of this system.

We have issued "Elevated" Alert levels for portions of north FL. Please see the map and recommended action below.

A strong tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa and the NHC has designated it as Invest 92L. There is a 40% chance of development through the next 5 days. It will likely struggle to develop much like 99L did due to its fast forward motion and dry air in the eastern Atlantic. However, if the system can make it far west (models showing very little chance of a re-curve at this time) it will likely have a chance to develop before reaching the Caribbean Sea or the Bahamas in about a week. We have plenty of time to monitor this system and it poses no threat to land at this time. We will keep you updated on the progress of this system.

Our next post will be issued sometime on Wednesday. Thanks for using Hurricane Tracker and have a great Tuesday! If you would like to receive these updates the moment they are published, please click here to sign up for email updates.

Tracking TD 8 & TD 9. New Wave Also Set To Move Off Africa

The Atlantic basin is certainly coming to life as we near the end of the month. With the peak of the season just around the corner, it's no surprise that we are tracking two systems and possibly a third in a few days. We are tracking TD 8 located east of the Carolinas and TD 9 in the Florida Straits. It will likely be a race to see which depression can achieve tropical storm status first. The next two names are Hermine and Ian.

We will begin this discussion with TD 8. After organizing quickly earlier today, the low-level center of the depression is now exposed due to 15 to 20 knots of southeasterly wind shear. The environment is only marginally conducive for intensification and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings this depression to tropical storm status within the next 24 hours. 

TD 8 will track west-northwest generally towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina before slowing down and re-curving just offshore in a few days. A tropical storm watch has not been issued due to the uncertainty in the intensity forecast and the timing of the approach to the coast. At this time, impacts are expected to be minimal with the most active weather remaining offshore. For those of you in eastern North Carolina, we have issued low alert levels and the best thing to do is just check in a couple of times today on the progress of the system.

Of greater concern is TD 9 which is located in the Florida Straits. It's moving towards the west and is forecasted to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours. This system should track into the central Gulf of Mexico and slowly intensify while it heads towards the Big Bend of FL later this week. There is a medium amount of confidence in the forecast cone and low confidence with the intensity forecast. All of the global computer models such as the European and the GFS, do not strengthen this to anything more than a low to moderate tropical storm. Hurricane models such the HWRF & GFDL intensify the system into a hurricane before making landfall in Florida. Currently, the National Hurricane Center only forecasts peak winds to reach 50 mph on Thursday before making landfall Thursday night.

We have issued guarded alert levels for portions of the north & northeastern gulf coast, please see the graphic and the key below. All interests and residents from the Mississippi/Alabama border down through the West Coast of Florida should closely follow the system throughout the week. It will be a slow mover and the waters in the Gulf of Mexico are in the mid to upper 80s in some areas. If upper-level conditions are favorable, it's possible the system could strengthen more than what is currently forecast.

As we get into this weekend, there is still a chance the system could track close to the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coastlines before turning out to sea. Of course the long term track beyond 5 days is still highly uncertain.

We will be tracking this system closely throughout the week with discussions, audio updates and analysis from the Hurricane Tracker App team.

If those two systems were not enough, we will likely be tracking a new tropical wave wave that is set to come off the coast of Africa with in the next 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center states this tropical wave has a 50% chance of development through the next five days. Current computer model guidance suggests that this system could be steered west across the Atlantic ocean underneath a building ridge of high-pressure. Needless to say, the system will be watched very closely over the next several days.

We want to thank you for using the Hurricane Tracker App and we hope that the information we provide is useful. We will be back with another discussion as conditions warrant.