Overview: All indications are showing that Invest 99L could become the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in more than 10 years. Also, there is the possibility of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico for the first time since 2012.

Invest 99L has a high chance of development at 80% through the next five days. Overnight, the system became better organized and is in the process of developing a more defined low level center. There is a Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled to investigate this afternoon and there is a chance they may find a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Hermaine. If the system does not form today, environmental conditions do become more favorable in the Bahamas later this week.

If you would like to receive these updates the moment they are published, please click here to sign up for email updates.

Invest 99L has become better organized overnight.

Short Term: 99L will continue to bring squally weather, including occasional gusts to tropical storm force across portions of the northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Dominican republic later today. Not a named system, but it may feel like one.

Track: Confidence in the track of the system over the next five days is increasing. It appears this storm will track west-northwest through the Bahamas and later this week, make a westerly turn towards southern Florida. Once the system crosses southern Florida on Sunday, it will likely emerge in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and then track west-northwest from there. At this time, we cannot say with any certainty where the system would make a second landfall along the Gulf coast. All options are on the table from south Texas through the Florida Panhandle. The main thing to note with this track is there is no pathway for this system to turn out into the open Atlantic. A building ridge of high-pressure over the southeast United States and it's a clockwise flow, will in all likelihood, turn this system west across South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Possible cone and Gulf of Mexico tracks issued by the Hurricane Tracker App

Intensity: We think there is a medium-high chance that it could intensify into a hurricane before reaching Florida and maintaining hurricane status in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, environmental conditions across the Bahamas and the Gulf of Mexico appear favorable to allow the system to strengthen, especially considering water temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s. With that said, tropical cyclone intensity is one of the hardest things to forecast and at this time we cannot forecast or predict maximum intensity.

5 Day Alert Levels: All interests across the Bahamas and the southern half of the Florida Peninsula should be watching this system very closely and check back for updates. "Elevated" alert levels mean that you should develop a plan and know how to execute it if watches or warnings are issued for your area by the National Hurricane Center.

Long Range Impact Chances: Please review our Long Range Impact Chance Map to give you some idea of what the chance is of 99L/Hermine impacting your area. Note: Decent chances have been posted along the Gulf coast. South FL has a 60% (as of now) of being impacted by this system.

We will have a another detailed post as conditions warrant. Please check the audio and video updates of the app for more in-depth information. Also, follow us on our Twitter account (https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp) for real-time updates as new data comes in. If you would like to receive these updates the moment they are published, please click here to sign up for email updates.

Update: We will have a new detailed post by 9AM EDT on Invest 99L.

Invest 90L in the eastern Atlantic was just upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven and is forecasted to become Tropical Storm Gaston tonight or tomorrow morning. The NHC is forecasting this system to become The 3rd hurricane of the season. As of the latest outlook, this storm should stay safely away from land. Although, Bermuda may want to keep an eye on it in case it tracks further west just as Fiona did.

Receive our detailed discussions via email as soon as they are published, please tap here. Our posts are updated as conditions warrant, but all storm data including advisories, maps, models and NHC data within the storm pages are updated in real time.

The focus of today's discussion is going to be in Invest 99L which is located approximately 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At this time, we are not expecting anything more than squally weather throughout portions of the NE Caribbean Sea mid-week as this system passes just to the north of the islands (see our Alert Level Map below). Chances of this system developing into a depression or tropical storm within the next 2 to 3 days is low at around 20%. However, As of this post there is about a 50 to 60% chance of development over the next five days. Development of this wave is expected to be slow due to its large size and also due to its interaction with dry air. Environmental conditions will likely become more conducive for this system to organize and strengthen late this week when the system is expected to move towards the southeastern and central Bahamas. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow to investigate the system.

Invest 99L has a medium chance of development over the next 5-7 days. Chances are rising.

Invest 99L has more convection and thunderstorms than it did over the last few days. It has a broad surface low and an ever-improving structure. Dry air intrusions should keep it in check for the next few days.

Low 5 day alert levels for the NE Caribbean, but guarded in the Bahamas where there's a greater chance of impacts from a classified system.

Track: Confidence is high that Invest 99L will track generally off towards the west northwest over the next five days and should be in the central Bahamas in about one week. Beyond seven days, the track forecast gets complicated due to several features that will determine where the system tracks. Models have been trending towards a stronger ridge of high pressure setting up over the southeastern portions of the United States and the clockwise flow around the high pressure may be enough to shove the storm west towards Florida or even into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, Tropical Depression Fiona (or its remnants) could create a weakness on the eastern side of the ridge which could open up a path for the the system to track further north or out to sea (sea images below). To further complicate matters, future Tropical Storm Gaston will be marching west north west across the Atlantic and could influence the strength of this ridge in the long term. So, at this time all options are on the table if this system does develop. It could turn west and impact Florida and possibly portions of the Gulf of Mexico, it could go north and impact portions of the southeastern United States or finally could turn and go out to sea harmlessly. If you have been following along, you know that the computer models have not been very helpful as they have been flip-flopping all over the place making this a very tricky forecast in the long term (we wouldn’t expect anything less from them!). Hopefully, within the next 2 to 3 days we will have a better idea as to how the atmosphere is going to set up and which direction the storm could possibly track. Please review our outlook cone below and long-range impact chances to see what the current chances of this storm impacting your area. These will be updated as new data comes in, so please check back in the app.

Many options on where this system may track beyond 5-7 days. This is not a forecast, just an outlook based on the latest data.

Will this system threaten you? Check out out our long range impact chances. These are subject to change as new data comes in.

Today's models may be trying to trend towards S FL impacts and an entry into the E Gulf. Again, not a forecast.

Intensity: The intensity of a tropical system is always one of the most difficult challenges in weather forecasting. It’s way too early to know whether this system will be a depression, tropical storm, or even a hurricane seven days from now. What we can say is that the computer models are showing a favorable environment for possible intensification. The sea surface temperatures are running higher than they have in the last several years (mid-upper 80’s) and that could definitely provide enough “fuel” for this system to strengthen if it were to form. The European model did show a possible hurricane striking South Florida in about a week, and while that is not the forecast, it is a possibility. The UKMET & Canadian models lend it some support as well. See the image below.

Shear is super low along the expected path of Invest 99L

For now, all interests in the Bahamas, Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the southeast United States coast should check in often on the progress of this system as the models and data will change several times over the few several days. Please be mindful, there is no imminent threat from the system and at this time, it is not forecasted to impact the United States, but it is a possibility based on the overall pattern that is setting up.

Please stay tuned here at the Hurricane Tracker App for frequent updates on Invest 99L throughout the rest of this week and into next. We will be tracking this one for at least the next week.

We highly recommend following our Twitter (hurrtrackerapp) for real time coverage and mode run updates as they happen.

If you value our service, please leave a quick review for us in the App Store. Click on a link below & you will be taken to our app in the store. Thanks so much!

Open App Store: iPhone Version

Open App Store: iPad Version

Thanks! ~ Hurricane Tracker App Team

Invest 99L Should Become Hermine As It Tracks Towards The SE U.S.

TD 7 Forms & Will Become Gaston. Invest 99L Is One To Watch Closely

A NEW POST WILL BE ISSUED IF THERE ANY CHANGES IN THE CURRENT OUTLOOK.

COPYRIGHT 2016 | HURRICANE TRACKER APP | EZ APPS, INC.