TS Franklin has been slowly tracking across the Yucatan Peninsula during the last 12-24 hours and is about to re-emerge over warm water into the Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm warnings/watches along with a hurricane watch have been issued for portions of the Gulf Coast of Mexico. Franklin will make a second landfall tomorrow night/early Thursday morning south of Tampico, Mexico. Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding and landslides will be the main concern across Mexico from Franklin. There is a low chance it may reach hurricane status before reaching the coast.
We have been monitoring this system for about a week now ever since it moved off of Africa. This tropical wave has been battling dry air and an overall unfavorable environment and will continue to do so for the next 2-3 days. By late week and into the weekend, this system will move into a favorable environment where development may finally occur. The EURO/UKMET/NAM/CMC models are all showing development by this weekend as the system tracks WNW towards the Bahamas & SE U.S. coastline. The NHC currently states there is a 30% chance of development, but development chances are increasing.
Bottom line, Invest 99L may develop & get close to the SE coast next week. If development occurs, a landfall cannot yet be ruled out. Either way, it appears it maybe a close call with some indirect effects even if the system does not make landfall. A trough of low pressure is forecasted to move across the eastern United States early next week and this could help turn the system away from shore. The timing and strength of this trough along with the placement of the “Bermuda Ridge” over the SW Atlantic will ultimately determine where this system will track. We still have 5-7 days to monitor this system and the future model outlooks. Stay tuned here for updates on Invest 99L.